How will San Francisco Giants’ top pick Bryan Reynolds fare? Let’s take a look at history

BRey

The Commodores play Virginia in Game 2 of a best-of-three series to determine the winner of the College World Series. Photo by Joe Howell.

  • For the first time in more than a decade, the San Francisco Giants didn’t have a top-30 pick in the first-year player draft.So the Giants were pleasantly surprised to see Vanderbilt outfielder Bryan Reynolds still on the board when they made the 59th pick in the 2016 draft.

    “We were very happy he was available for us in the second round, and I must say we wer surprised he was getting to us,” Giants scouting director John Barr told the San Jose Mercury News. “We felt he was a guy more than likely would be gone before we could select.”

    The Giants had Reynolds, a switch-hitting center fielder, rated as a first-round player. But they forfeited their first-round pick when they signed Jeff Samardzija as a free agent last winter.

    A three-year starter at Vanderbilt, Reynolds hit .346 in the Cape Cod League, and the Giants see him as a top-of-the-lineup player.

    The scouting community rated Reynolds as a safe pick with somewhat low ceiling, much like the way Joe Panik was rated when the Giants were said to “reach” to pick him in the first round in 2011.

    But the Giants actually have a decent track record in the draft in recent years. Every first-player-drafted by San Francisco Giants from 2006-2012 made it to the majors, even Gary Brown.

    So how might Reynolds fare? Well, let’s take a look at how players take in the top-60 picks by the Giants have fared in the last 10 years.

    Certainly, the Giants have struck gold in the draft, but those have largely been top-10 picks: Tim Lincecum (No. 10, 2006), Madison Bumgarner (No. 10, 2007) and Buster Posey (No. 5, 2008). I’d also rate Joe Panik (No. 29, 2011) is a solid find.

    Several other players taken in the top-60 in recent years have used to acquire key players in trades. Charlie Culberson (No. 51, 2007) was traded for Marco Scutaro in 2012, Tim Alderson (No. 22, 2007) was dealt for Freddy Sanchez in 2009, Zach Wheeler (No. 6, 2009) was traded for Carlos Beltran in 2011 and Tommy Joseph (No. 55, 2009) was part of the Hunter Pence deal in 2012.

    But, of course, there have been players who made marginal or no big-league contributions to the Giants: Emmanuel Burris (No. 33, 2006), Wendell Fairley (No. 29, 2007), Nick Noonan (No. 32, 2007), Jackson Williams (No. 43, 2007), Conor Gillaspie (No. 37, 2008) and Gary Brown (No. 24, 2010).

    The jury is still out on players drafted since 2011.

 

  • RHP Kyle Crick (No. 49, 2011) was a top-100 prospect in 2013-15. But his inability to harness his control has not allowed him to rise above Double-A. He’s currently 1-4 with 4.91 ERA at Double-A Richmond.
  • RHP Chris Stratton (No. 20, 2012) made his big-league debut this season for the Giants. He has thrown two scoreless innings out of the bullpen and currently remains in the bullpen, although he seems like Bruce Bochy’s last option there.
  • SS Christian Arroyo (No. 25, 2013) was drafted right out of high school and he’s produced all along the line in the minors. He’s currently the No. 62 prospect by Baseball America. He’s hitting .288 for Double-A Richmond, similar to what Matt Duffy hit when he got called up two years ago. Don’t look for that with Arroyo, as he’s only 21.
  • RHP Tyler Beede (No. 14, 2014) was drafted out of Vanderbilt two years ago. After a bumpy start this season at Double-A Richmond, he currently 4-3 with 3.05 ERA. But he has produced quality starts in his last five outings. Since the start of May, his ERA is 2.25.
  • C Aramis Garcia (No. 52, 2014) has been on a slow track since being drafted out of Florida International University. But he’s having his best offensive season of his minor league career. He’s hitting .298 with .359 OBP with one home run and 14 RBI in 84 at-bats for Long-A San Jose.
  • RHP Phil Bickford, No. 18, 2015) is at Low-A Augusta, where he is 2-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 10 starts. He has 62 strikeouts to 14 walks in 53 innings. And he’s only 20 years old.
  • 1B Chris Shaw (No. 31, 2015) is turning heads in down at Class A San Jose, where he has 13 home runs, 46 RBI, batting .294 with a .363 OBP in 55 games. He hit 12 home runs in 46 games in Shortseason-A Salem-Keizer last season.
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